*Getting to Yes: The Role of Creditor Coordination in Debt Restructuring Negotiations
*International Interactions Replication 
*Lauren Ferry (leferry@olemiss.edu)
*November 2022 

use "II_2022_data_full.dta"

global controls1 lndebtGDP trade_wdi imf_prog5 yrsdef

global controls2 _hmons_5yr lngdppc_wdi_pw checks polity2_p4 US_chair

global regions americas africa europe

***************
*Main analysis* 
***************

*Figure 1*
hist num_banks_high_log if country !="Argentina", freq scheme(s1mono)

*Table 1*

probit declaration num_banks_high_log, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

*Figure 2*
margins, at(num_banks_high_log=(3(0.5)14)) asobserved 
marginsplot, recast(line) recastci(rarea) xlabel(3(1)14) scheme(s1mono)

*crisis level 
use "II_2022_data_crisis.dta", replace

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)
predict prob_dec, pr

bootstrap, reps(1000) seed(160773): regress preferred_haircut4_low prob_dec debt_restructrued_low_ln, cluster(ccode)
estat bootstrap, all

**********
*Appendix*
**********
*Appendix A: Russian Bond Restructuring, 1998-2000 
	*NA
	
*Appendix B: Creditors and Haircuts 
use "II_2022_data_crisis.dta", replace

twoway (scatter preferred_haircut4_low num_banks_high if num_banks_high<3000) ||lfit preferred_haircut4_low num_banks_high if num_banks_high<3000, scheme(s1mono)

*Appendix C: Cost of a Public Declaration
*Replication of Trebesch and Zabel (2017) with PDs
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

tab year, gen(year_dummy) 

global growth_controls tz_inv_to_gdp tz_chg_pop tz_ln_pop tz_sec_edu L.tz_govt_consumption tz_civil_liberties tz_delta_tot tz_openness tz_bankingcrisis_onset  

global technical_controls *year_dummy*

tsset ccode year

xtreg tz_real_growth_pc tz_in_default tz_dec $technical_controls $growth_controls, fe vce(robust)

*Appendix D: Heterogeneity in US banks
use "II_2022_data_crisis.dta", replace

collapse (mean)mean_MC = perc_country_MC (sd)sd_MC=perc_country_MC, by(Creditor_holdup)
generate hid14use2 = mean_MC + invttail(63-1,0.05)*(sd_MC / sqrt(63))
generate lod14use2 = mean_MC - invttail(63-1,0.05)*(sd_MC / sqrt(63))
graph twoway (bar mean_MC Creditor_holdup if Creditor_holdup==1)(bar mean_MC Creditor_holdup if Creditor_holdup==0)(rcap hid14use2 lod14use2 Creditor_holdup), scheme(s1mono)

*Appendices E and F: Sample of crises and list of crises with public declarations
use "II_2022_data_crisis.dta", replace

quietly probit declaration num_banks_high_log,  cluster(ccode)
list ccode year if e(sample)==1

list ccode year if declaration==1

*Appendix G: Example Coding
	*NA
	
*Appendix H: Descriptive Statistics 
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)
summarize declaration num_banks_high_log num_banks_high $controls1 $controls2 if e(sample)==1

graph bar (sum) US_chair (sum) UK_chair (sum) Germany_chair (sum) France_chair (sum) Canada_chair (sum) Austria_chair, legend(pos(6) row(3) label(1 "US Chair") label(2 "UK Chair") label(3 "Germany Chair") label(4 "France Chair") label(5 "Canada Chair") label(6 "Austria Chair")) ytitle("London Club Chair by Nationality" "Crisis-Years 1980-2009") scheme(s1color)


*Appendix I: Probing Selection 
*I.1 Determinants of default 
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

probit haircut $controls1 _hmons_5yr lngdppc_wdi_pw checks polity2_p4 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

probit haircut $controls1 _hmons_5yr lngdppc_wdi_pw checks polity2_p4 lvau_garriga_cbi fedfunds exec_left_new regionavg_debtGDP inflation_wdi growth_wdi_pw year $regions, cluster(ccode)
predict phat2

*controlling for determinants of default 
probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 fedfunds exec_left_new regionavg_debtGDP inflation_wdi growth_wdi_pw year $regions, cluster(ccode)

bootstrap, reps(1000) seed(1): probit declaration num_banks_high_log phat2, robust

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 lngdp_wdi_pw lnpop_wdi_pw midist year $regions, cluster(ccode)

*I.2 Determinants of creditor composition 
*determinants of creditors (5 year lags)
sort ccode year

global controls1l L5.lndebtGDP L5.trade_wdi L5.lngdppc_wdi_pw L5._hmons_5yr

global controls2l L5._hmons_5yr L5.lngdppc_wdi_pw L5.checks L5.polity2_p4 

regress num_banks_high_log $controls1l year $regions, cluster(ccode)

regress num_banks_high_log $controls1l L5.lngdp_wdi_pw L5.lnpop_wdi_pw year $regions, cluster(ccode)

regress num_banks_high_log $controls1l L5.exec_left_new L5.checks L5.polity2_p4 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

regress num_banks_high_log $controls1l L5.fedfunds L5.regionavg_debtGDP year $regions, cluster(ccode)

*past default and number of creditors (figures)
use "II_2022_data_crisis.dta", replace
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==70, scheme(s1mono) 
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==140, scheme(s1mono)
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==155, scheme(s1mono)
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==165, scheme(s1mono)
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==475, scheme(s1mono)
twoway (bar num_banks_high year) if ccode==840, scheme(s1mono)


*Appendix J: Prominent Cases
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country!="Argentina", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country!="Brazil", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions  if country!="Ecuador", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country!="Peru", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country!="Philippines", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country!="Russia", cluster(ccode)

*Appendix K: Operationalization
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

*IV Operationalizations
probit declaration num_banks_high $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)
margins, at(num_banks_high=(0(50)1500)) asobserved 
marginsplot, recast(line) recastci(rarea) scheme(s1mono)

probit declaration num_banks_low_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions if country !="Argentina", cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_committee $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)
hist num_committee, freq scheme(s1mono)

probit declaration perc_banks_committee $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration Bond_Exchange $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

*DV Operationalizations 
probit threats num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

regress coercindex num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)

*Appendix L: Specification  
use "II_2022_data_full.dta", replace

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 yrsoffc_PI exec_left_new year $regions , cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 unemployment_nationalestimate year $regions , cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 debt_serv_exp reserves_monthsofimports  year $regions , cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 $regions decade80 decade90, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year decade00 $regions, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2, cluster(ccode)

probit declaration num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, robust

probit onset num_banks_high_log $controls1 $controls2 year $regions, cluster(ccode)
